The 15-Month Wait-Out Period Is Gone. Are We Already Seeing Its Impact on the HDB Resale Market?

Sometimes policy changes take months before we see their impact on the ground.

This one feels different.

Since the Government removed the 15-month wait-out period for eligible private property owners and former owners buying non-subsidised HDB resale flats without an HDB housing loan, I have been watching closely to see whether buyer behaviour would change.

This National Day weekend gave me perhaps the clearest indication yet.

Across our HDB listings, we saw a noticeable revival in enquiries and viewings—particularly for the larger HDB flat types.

Five-room flats. Executive Apartments (EA). Executive Maisonettes (EM).

And some of the activity surprised even me.

What We Saw on the Ground This National Day Weekend

One of our five-room DBSS listings had been on the market for the past few months.

It wasn't a bad unit.

We had plenty of viewings and enquiries.

But despite the interest, nobody stepped forward with an offer.

This weekend, that changed.

We finally received offers.

Then there was my Executive Maisonette listing at Blk 301 Shunfu Road.

The response was even stronger.

Over the National Day weekend alone, we received approximately 30 enquiries and conducted 19 viewings across Saturday and Sunday.

At the time of writing, we are working on an offer.

That is a significant amount of activity for one resale HDB listing over a single weekend.

Of course, one weekend does not make a market.

But when we start seeing similar behaviour across different listings at the same time, I think it is worth paying attention.

Why Are Larger HDB Flats Suddenly Getting Attention?

I don't think this is coincidental.

The removal of the 15-month wait-out period has reopened the HDB resale market to a group of buyers who were effectively sitting on the sidelines.

These are private property owners who may have wanted to right-size but were previously discouraged by the logistics involved.

Imagine selling your private property and then having to wait 15 months before you could purchase an HDB resale flat.

Where do you stay?

Do you rent?

Do you move twice?

What happens to your furniture?

And what if HDB prices move during those 15 months?

For many families, the inconvenience was enough for them to postpone the entire decision.

That obstacle has now been removed for eligible buyers.

And I believe some of that pent-up demand is beginning to return.

Why 5-Room, EA and EM Flats Could Be the Biggest Beneficiaries

This is where it gets interesting.

A private property right-sizer isn't necessarily looking for the cheapest HDB flat.

In fact, many aren't really "downgrading" their lifestyle at all.

They are right-sizing their property exposure.

Someone moving from a 1,300 sq ft condominium may not want to squeeze into a small flat simply to unlock more money.

They may still want:

• Generous living and dining spaces.

• Three proper bedrooms.

• A study or additional room.

• Space for children and grandchildren.

• A good kitchen.

• Established amenities.

• MRT connectivity.

• A familiar neighbourhood.

That naturally directs attention towards larger HDB formats.

And this is where Executive Apartments and Executive Maisonettes become particularly interesting.

Executive Maisonettes Are Almost Impossible to Replace

I've always found Executive Maisonettes fascinating.

They are a product HDB no longer builds.

You have two levels.

Clear separation between living and sleeping areas.

Large internal spaces.

And in many cases, layouts that would be extremely expensive to replicate in today's private condominium market.

My Shunfu EM, for example, is approximately 146 sqm.

For a private property owner accustomed to space, an EM can provide a much easier transition into HDB living than a compact modern flat.

And because no new EMs are being built, supply is finite.

If demand from right-sizers increases, this scarcity becomes increasingly relevant.

We May See More Million-Dollar HDB Transactions

I think this is a very real possibility.

Private property owners who have accumulated substantial housing equity behave differently from typical first-time buyers.

Imagine someone selling a condominium for $2.5 million or $3 million.

After repaying the outstanding mortgage and refunding CPF, they may still have significant capital available.

Paying $1 million or even $1.2 million for the right HDB flat may still allow them to unlock a substantial amount for retirement or investment.

Their decision isn't simply:

"Why should I pay $1 million for an HDB?"

It may instead be:

"Can I buy the home I want for $1 million and free up another $1 million or more from my existing property?"

That is a completely different financial calculation.

But I Don't Think Every HDB Flat Will Suddenly Rise

This distinction is important.

The removal of the wait-out period does not mean every HDB flat will suddenly receive multiple offers.

I expect the impact to be selective.

Private property right-sizers generally have choices.

Many don't urgently need to buy.

They are therefore likely to gravitate towards flats that make the transition worthwhile.

In my opinion, the biggest beneficiaries could be:

Larger 5-room flats, Executive Apartments, Executive Maisonettes, DBSS units and newer premium resale flats in well-connected locations.

Location will matter tremendously.

So will condition, layout and accessibility.

What Does This Mean for HDB Sellers?

If you own one of these larger or rarer flat types, I think your potential buyer pool has just expanded.

Previously, one segment of financially strong buyers faced a significant obstacle to entering the market.

That obstacle is now gone.

But sellers should not immediately assume this means they can increase their asking prices substantially.

The HDB resale market remains price-sensitive.

Buyers have access to transaction data.

And private property right-sizers are generally experienced property owners themselves.

They know how to compare value.

What I do think may change is liquidity.

A good flat that previously attracted many viewings but struggled to receive offers may now have another group of buyers capable of acting.

Our DBSS experience this weekend may be an early example of that.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

For buyers looking at larger HDB flats, I would pay attention to the next few months.

You may increasingly find yourself competing against a different buyer profile.

Someone who has just sold—or intends to sell—a private property may have considerably more cash available and require less financing.

That doesn't mean buyers should panic.

But if you find a genuinely rare flat that suits your family's needs, waiting indefinitely for a large discount may become harder if demand broadens.

This is particularly relevant for EMs and EAs because there is no new supply coming.

Could This Reverse the Recent Moderation in HDB Prices?

I don't think we should jump to that conclusion yet.

The Government removed the temporary measure partly because the HDB market has already shown signs of moderation.

There is also more supply coming into the resale market as newer flats progressively reach MOP.

So we now have two forces working against each other.

More potential right-sizer demand on one side.

More resale supply on the other.

My base case is therefore not another indiscriminate HDB boom.

Instead, I think we may see greater price divergence.

Ordinary flats with plenty of competing supply may continue seeing relatively normal market conditions.

Rare, large and well-located flats could experience much stronger demand.

That distinction will become increasingly important.

This Is Why I Prefer the Term "Right-Sizing"

I've never particularly liked describing every move from private property to HDB as a downgrade.

Sometimes it is financially the exact opposite.

A couple may sell a $3 million condominium, buy a $1.1 million HDB and unlock well over $1 million for retirement and investment.

They may reduce their mortgage dramatically.

Their monthly expenses fall.

They remain in a spacious home in a neighbourhood they enjoy.

Are they really worse off?

I don't think so.

They have simply decided that they no longer need so much of their wealth tied up in their home.

That is asset progression too.

Progress doesn't always mean buying something more expensive.

Sometimes progress means unlocking what you have already built.

My View After This Weekend

I don't want to overstate what we observed.

This is one National Day weekend, and we need more transactions and more time before drawing conclusions about the entire HDB resale market.

But as someone actively working with buyers and sellers every week, I pay attention when behaviour changes.

Thirty enquiries and 19 viewings for one Executive Maisonette over two days gets my attention.

A DBSS listing that had plenty of viewings but no offers for months suddenly receiving offers gets my attention too.

The timing, coming shortly after the removal of the 15-month wait-out period, is difficult to ignore.

I believe we are beginning to see the return of a buyer segment that has been relatively constrained since 2022.

And if this continues, the biggest impact may not be across the entire HDB market.

It could be concentrated precisely where supply is hardest to replace:

large, rare and well-located HDB homes.

The next few months will tell us whether this National Day weekend was simply an unusually busy weekend—or the beginning of a more meaningful shift.

From what I'm seeing on the ground, I think it's worth watching very closely.

Related reading

• Should you right-size to an HDB flat now that the wait-out is gone?
• Right-sizing isn't about buying the cheapest flat
• Talk through your own right-sizing plan with Christopher Ng