Not Every New Launch Is Going to Win Anymore. Is Singapore Entering a Property Picker’s Market?

For the last few years, buying a Singapore new launch almost felt like a formula.

Good location.

New project.

Launch weekend.

Strong sales.

Developer raises prices.

Next project launches even higher.

And everyone who bought earlier suddenly looks clever.

It wasn’t quite that simple, of course. But when the overall market was rising strongly, a rising tide helped many projects.

I think that environment is beginning to change.

And something my CEO Marcus Chu said recently caught my attention.

Speaking to The Business Times about the upcoming Q4 launch pipeline, Marcus said:

“Developers are no longer selling into a rising tide in which every launch benefits equally. Every project now has to earn demand.”

I think those words describe very well what Singapore property buyers should prepare for next.

Because I increasingly believe we are entering a property picker’s market.

Not necessarily a buyer’s market.

Not a crash.

Not an oversupply disaster.

But a market where simply saying,

“I bought a new launch.”

may no longer be enough.

The next question will be:

Which one did you buy?

The Numbers Are Already Starting to Tell Us Something

According to URA, overall private residential prices increased just 0.5% in Q2 2026, slowing from the 0.9% increase in Q1.

But look underneath that headline number and things become more interesting.

Landed property prices rose 2.5%.

CCR non-landed prices rose 1.8%.

But RCR non-landed prices actually fell 1.2%, while OCR non-landed prices slipped 0.1%.

In other words:

Singapore property isn’t moving uniformly anymore.

Different segments are already behaving differently.

And this is happening while a substantial amount of new supply is coming.

URA estimates around 60,600 private residential units including ECs are expected to be completed over the coming years.

Around 25,900 are expected by 2028, with another 34,700 from 2029 onwards.

At the same time, the Government is maintaining a high GLS supply.

For 2026 alone, the Confirmed List provides 9,320 private residential units — more than 50% above the average annual Confirmed List supply over the previous decade.

I recently wrote about why I don’t think this automatically means Singapore is heading towards an oversupply crisis.

But I do think it means something else.

Buyers are going to have choices.

And when buyers have choices, mediocre properties become much harder to hide.

2024/25: Owning the Market Was Often Enough

During a strong property cycle, the market can sometimes make investors look smarter than they actually are.

Buy a reasonably decent project.

Hold it.

Watch surrounding land prices rise.

Watch the next launch establish a higher PSF.

Suddenly your property looks cheap by comparison.

This replacement-cost effect has been incredibly powerful.

Suppose you bought at $2,000 psf.

The next project launched at $2,300 psf.

Then $2,500 psf.

Then $2,700 psf.

Even if there was nothing particularly special about your unit, rising benchmarks helped pull its perceived value upwards.

That is the rising tide Marcus Chu was referring to.

But I think 2026/27 could become different.

2026/27: What You Own May Matter More Than Simply Owning

Imagine that over the next few years, buyers have several choices within the same broad location.

Project A.

Project B.

Project C.

A five-year-old resale condo.

An older freehold development.

And perhaps another GLS site launching shortly afterwards.

Your future buyer doesn’t have to buy your property.

They can choose.

That’s when property selection becomes much more important.

And this is where I think buyers need to stop asking only:

“Will Singapore property prices go up?”

Instead ask:

“If the market goes up 5%, will MY property go up 5%?”

Those are completely different questions.

Because an index is an average.

You cannot buy the URA Property Price Index.

You buy:

one project,
one unit type,
one stack,
one floor,
one facing,
at one particular price.

And eventually you have to sell that exact property to another human being.

Two Projects at Almost the Same Price Can Perform Completely Differently

This year’s launch market already gives us a fascinating example.

According to The Business Times, Tengah Garden Residences sold approximately 99% of its 863 units during its April launch at an average of around $2,120 psf.

Narra Residences, meanwhile, sold around 25% at launch at approximately $2,180 psf.

Only around $60 psf separated the average prices.

Yet buyer response was dramatically different.

Why?

CBRE pointed to several factors behind Tengah Garden Residences’ appeal, including its relatively affordable entry price, first-mover advantage as Tengah’s first private condominium, direct access to an upcoming MRT station and retail component.

That is exactly my point.

Buyers weren’t simply asking:

“Is $2,100+ psf acceptable?”

They were deciding:

What am I getting for $2,100+ psf?

The market differentiated.

And I think we’re going to see much more of that.

Buyers Are Becoming More Selective

The Business Times reported that projects launched in July achieved an average take-up rate below 55%, compared with 63.9% for launches in May.

Those numbers are still healthy historically.

But they’re different from the period when we became accustomed to seeing headlines like:

70% sold.

80% sold.

90% sold on launch weekend.

Interestingly, this doesn’t necessarily mean underlying demand has disappeared.

Developers sold 4,885 new private homes in the first seven months of 2026, excluding ECs.

That was 11.6% lower than the same period last year.

But the number of units launched fell even more — by 28.7%.

So buyers are still there.

They’re simply being given fewer launches and, increasingly, they appear willing to discriminate between them.

That distinction matters.

The $2.5 Million Question

Marcus Chu also highlighted something I find particularly interesting.

ERA’s analysis identified $2.5 million as an important psychological affordability threshold for new non-landed private homes.

Homes below $2.5 million accounted for between 41% and 74% of monthly new-home sales from January to August.

This tells us something very important.

PSF gets the headlines.

Quantum gets the buyer.

A project can theoretically justify $3,000 psf.

But if the family-sized unit ends up costing $3.5 million or $4 million, the buyer pool changes dramatically.

This is why I always tell buyers:

Don’t analyse PSF alone.

Analyse the eventual exit quantum.

Because five years from now, your buyer doesn’t care that your developer had expensive construction costs.

They care whether they can afford your home.

My Property Selection Framework

When I look at a new launch today, I increasingly think through the investment in this order:

1. Project

Does the project itself have a compelling reason to exist?

Location?

MRT?

Schools?

Integrated development?

Transformation?

Scarcity?

First-mover advantage?

If I remove the beautiful showflat and marketing brochure, what remains?

1. Entry Price

A great project can still become a poor investment if you overpay.

I want to know:

How does the price compare with surrounding resale?

How does it compare with nearby new launches?

What did the developer pay for the land?

What could the next GLS site potentially launch at?

And how much future appreciation am I already paying for today?

1. Competing Supply

This is going to become increasingly important.

I recently wrote about the 60,600 private homes coming into Singapore’s future supply pipeline.

The important question isn’t:

“How many homes are coming?”

It’s:

“How many homes are coming that compete directly with mine?”

If I’m buying a two-bedroom unit and another 1,500 similar two-bedroom units will TOP nearby around my intended exit period, I want to know that before I buy.

If I’m buying something genuinely scarce with almost no future substitute, that’s a very different proposition.

1. Unit Type

Not every unit type within the same project will perform equally.

A project may be fantastic.

But perhaps 40% of the development consists of similar two-bedroom units.

Or perhaps there are only 40 four-bedroom units.

Which one has the stronger future scarcity?

Which one has the larger buyer pool?

Which one has the better quantum?

There isn’t a universal answer.

But there is definitely a question worth asking.

1. Stack

This is where things become very specific.

Two units with exactly the same layout can perform differently simply because of where they’re positioned.

One faces:

pool.

Another faces:

MRT track.

One has:

open greenery.

Another looks:

directly into the next block.

Yet during launch, the price difference may sometimes be surprisingly small.

That’s where selection matters.

1. View

I’ve always placed significant importance on views.

Not because every buyer needs a spectacular view.

But because views create differentiation.

When 20 identical units come onto PropertyGuru five years from now, what makes someone click yours?

Unblocked view?

Greenery?

Pool?

City skyline?

Landed facing?

Or does your unit look straight into another bedroom?

When supply increases, differentiation becomes more valuable.

1. Exit Audience

This might be the most important question of all.

Who buys this property from me next?

An HDB upgrader?

Young couple?

Investor?

Landed right-sizer?

Family wanting a school?

Tenant converting into owner?

Foreign buyer?

If I cannot clearly identify my future buyer, I become uncomfortable.

Because property investment doesn’t end when you buy.

It ends when someone else buys from you.

Project → Price → Supply → Unit → Stack → View → Exit

That’s increasingly how I think buyers should approach the next property cycle.

Notice something?

“New launch” isn’t one of the investment criteria.

Being new is a product attribute.

It isn’t an investment thesis.

The Resale Market Is Becoming Part of the Conversation Again

This also explains something else I’ve been writing about recently.

Resale condos are quietly becoming interesting again.

URA recorded 3,813 resale transactions in Q2 2026, compared with 2,141 new private homes sold by developers.

Resale represented 62% of all private residential sale transactions during the quarter.

I don’t think buyers have suddenly stopped liking new launches.

They’re comparing.

Imagine:

New launch: $2,900 psf.

Relatively young resale condo nearby: $2,250 psf.

That’s a $650 psf difference.

On 1,000 sq ft, that’s:

$650,000.

The new launch may absolutely deserve that premium.

But it needs to explain why.

Better product?

Better location?

Fresh lease?

Integrated development?

Transformation?

Scarcity?

Better future exit?

If the answer is simply:

“Because it’s new.”

I’m not convinced that’s enough anymore.

This Is Actually Healthy for Singapore Property

I don’t see greater selectivity as a negative development.

I actually think it’s healthy.

A market where every project sells out regardless of quality or price eventually encourages bad decisions.

Developers become more aggressive with land bids.

Buyers become less price-sensitive.

Agents stop analysing and start selling FOMO.

And investors begin believing that buying anything is enough.

A more selective market forces everyone to become better.

Developers need to create better products.

Buyers need to understand value.

Agents need to analyse rather than simply promote.

And investors need to think about their eventual exit.

That is a healthier market.

The Upcoming Q4 Launches Will Be Very Interesting

There are several important projects coming.

Thomson Reserve.

Lucerne Grand.

Amberwood at Holland.

The Serra Residences.

The Business Times estimates around 2,300 new private homes, excluding ECs, could be marketed over the remainder of 2026.

I won’t be looking only at whether these projects sell 50%, 70% or 90%.

I’ll be watching something more interesting.

Which projects attract buyers?

Which unit types sell first?

Which stacks command premiums?

Where does buyer resistance begin?

At what quantum do buyers hesitate?

And perhaps most importantly:

What explains the difference?

Because that tells us where genuine demand lies.

My View

I don’t think Singapore’s property market is suddenly weak.

The data doesn’t support that conclusion.

Overall private residential prices still rose 0.5% in Q2.

Developer sales remain healthy relative to the number of units launched.

Unsold inventory remains manageable.

And Singapore’s underlying housing demand hasn’t suddenly disappeared.

But I do think the character of the market is changing.

For a period, rising land prices, limited supply and strong demand lifted many projects together.

That made property investing look deceptively simple.

Buy new.

Wait.

Sell higher.

I don’t think the next few years will be quite so forgiving.

With 60,600 homes in the future completion pipeline, continued GLS supply and buyers becoming increasingly price-sensitive, the performance gap between the best and worst properties may widen.

And that brings me back to Marcus Chu’s observation:

Every project now has to earn demand.

I’d take that one step further.

I think every unit will increasingly have to earn its resale buyer too.

That’s why I believe Singapore may be entering a property picker’s market.

The winners won’t necessarily be the people who own the most property.

Or the people who bought the newest property.

They may simply be the people who selected better.

Better project.
Better entry price.
Less competing supply.
Better unit type.
Better stack.
Better view.
Clearer exit audience.

In 2024 and 2025, owning the market may have been enough to lift many boats.

In 2026 and 2027, I think what you own is going to matter much more.

And that’s probably how it should be.

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