Singapore Property Market Outlook 2026: What the First Half Tells Us About the Second Half

At the beginning of every year, the Singapore property market attracts two very different predictions.

One group says prices are already too high and must eventually correct.

The other believes limited land, continued population growth and Singapore’s economic resilience will keep prices moving upwards.

After observing the first six months of 2026, I believe the truth lies somewhere in between.

The market is neither collapsing nor rising indiscriminately.

Instead, it is becoming increasingly selective.

Projects with the right location, sensible overall quantum, strong transport connectivity and a clear target buyer continue to perform well.

Properties without these qualities are taking longer to move, even when sellers and developers remain confident about their asking prices.

That distinction will become even more important in the second half of 2026.

How Did the Singapore Property Market Perform in 1H 2026?

Based on URA’s flash estimate, overall private residential prices increased by 0.9% in the first quarter of 2026 and a further 0.5% in the second quarter.

This suggests that private home prices rose by approximately 1.4% over the first half of the year, before allowing for any revisions when the complete second-quarter data is released on 24 July 2026.

On the surface, this looks like a relatively uneventful market.

Prices went up, but not excessively.

Transaction volumes remained healthy when attractive projects were launched, but slowed considerably when the supply of fresh launches dried up.

That second point is important.

Developers sold 2,013 new private homes, excluding Executive Condominiums, in the first quarter of 2026. New sales then accelerated strongly in March and April, with 1,548 homes sold in April alone.

Sales fell to 447 units in May and just 156 units in June, but this should not automatically be interpreted as a collapse in demand.

Only a limited number of projects were launched in May, while June became the first month since URA began publishing monthly developer sales figures in 2007 in which no new private homes were launched.

In other words, the lower sales were largely supply-driven.

When developers brought attractive projects to the market, buyers responded.

When developers held back their launches, transaction volumes naturally fell.

This is why I do not believe monthly sales figures should ever be viewed in isolation.

The Market Is Still Active, but Buyers Are More Disciplined

One of the clearest lessons from the first half of 2026 is that buyers have not disappeared.

However, they are becoming more price-sensitive.

They are comparing projects more carefully.

They are paying greater attention to the total purchase quantum, not just the price per square foot.

And they are increasingly asking whether a development offers genuine liveability and future exit demand.

This is a healthy development.

In a rapidly rising market, buyers sometimes purchase because they fear missing out.

In a more balanced market, buyers ask better questions.

Is the layout efficient?

Is the MRT genuinely within walking distance?

Are there schools, amenities and employment nodes nearby?

Is the development priced fairly against surrounding resale options?

Will there be a natural pool of buyers when I eventually sell?

These considerations will determine which projects outperform in the second half of the year.

Not Every Region Performed Equally

The second-quarter flash estimate revealed a significant divergence between the market segments.

Non-landed private home prices in the Core Central Region increased by 2.0% in the second quarter. In contrast, prices declined by 1.4% in the Rest of Central Region and 0.2% in the Outside Central Region.

This does not necessarily mean that the CCR has permanently become the strongest region.

Quarterly figures can be heavily influenced by the mix of projects and units transacted.

However, it does suggest that buyers are reassessing the relative value between central and suburban properties.

For several years, mass-market and city-fringe prices rose quickly because of strong upgrader demand and increasingly expensive land costs.

As the price gap narrowed, some buyers began to ask a logical question:

If an OCR or RCR home is already approaching premium pricing, should I pay slightly more for a more central address?

That question could support selected CCR developments in the coming quarters, especially projects near MRT stations and established amenities.

The HDB Resale Market Has Reached a Turning Point

The HDB resale market told a different story.

HDB resale prices declined by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the first quarterly fall in nearly seven years.

The flash estimate then showed a further 0.3% decline in the second quarter, making it the second consecutive quarter of falling resale prices.

Second-quarter resale volume stood at 6,268 transactions as at 29 June, around 10.2% lower than the same quarter a year earlier.

I would not describe this as a crash.

After several years of strong HDB price growth, a period of consolidation was expected and arguably necessary.

The Government has continued increasing the supply of new flats, while loan restrictions and affordability considerations have limited how aggressively some buyers can bid for resale homes.

However, the HDB market should not be treated as one homogeneous segment.

Well-renovated flats near MRT stations, good schools and town centres may continue to command premiums.

Older flats in less convenient locations may face greater price resistance.

The same principle applies throughout the market:

Quality and scarcity still matter, but buyers are no longer prepared to pay any price.

What Does 1H 2026 Indicate for the Second Half?

My base case is that the Singapore property market will remain resilient in the second half of 2026, but performance will be uneven.

I expect private home prices to continue rising moderately rather than surge.

New home sales should recover from the quiet month of June as more developments enter the market.

Industry estimates indicate that around 11 to 12 projects, comprising approximately 3,500 to 3,600 units, could be launched during the second half of the year.

That launch pipeline will provide a more meaningful test of buyer confidence.

Unlike the first half, where several launches performed strongly in relatively concentrated windows, buyers in the second half may have more options arriving within a shorter period.

Developers will therefore be competing not only against nearby projects, but also for a limited pool of buyers’ attention and financing capacity.

Projects that are well-positioned and realistically priced should still enjoy strong take-up.

Those attempting to establish overly ambitious price benchmarks may find buyers becoming more patient.

The Main Headwinds Facing the Property Market

While Singapore’s housing fundamentals remain sound, it would be unwise to ignore the risks.

1. Global Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry maintained its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2% to 4%, but cautioned that downside risks had risen significantly because of escalating geopolitical tensions.

Singapore is an open economy.

Any prolonged disruption to global trade, energy prices, financial markets or business confidence could eventually affect hiring and household sentiment.

Property buyers tend to delay major commitments when they feel uncertain about job stability or future income.

2. Affordability Is Becoming the Real Price Ceiling

Even when buyers believe property prices will remain supported, they still need to qualify for financing.

High absolute prices, Buyer’s Stamp Duty, Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty and monthly mortgage obligations place a natural limit on demand.

A buyer may appreciate a development but still walk away because the overall quantum is beyond what feels comfortable.

This is why compact but liveable units, efficient layouts and projects offering reasonable entry prices could outperform larger or more luxurious alternatives.

3. More Supply Means More Competition

The Government has continued maintaining a high level of private housing supply through the GLS programme.

The 1H 2026 GLS programme alone offered an overall supply of approximately 9,200 private housing units across the Confirmed and Reserve Lists.

This is positive for long-term market stability.

However, it also means buyers will have more choices over the coming years.

Future supply does not automatically cause prices to fall, particularly when sites are well located and land costs remain high.

But it reduces the pressure for buyers to rush into a project simply because they fear there will be nothing else available.

4. Policy Risk Remains Present

The Government has repeatedly demonstrated that it will act when housing prices become disconnected from income growth or affordability.

With HDB prices beginning to moderate and private prices rising at a manageable pace, I do not see an urgent need for broad new cooling measures at this point.

However, any renewed surge in speculative activity, rapid price escalation or excessive demand at launches could bring policy risk back into focus.

Which Property Segment Should Buyers Watch?

There are three areas I would pay particular attention to in the second half of 2026.

1. The Core Central Region Value-Reset Story

My first segment to watch is selected CCR projects.

I am not suggesting that every luxury property will perform well.

Large investment units that depend heavily on foreign buyers may continue facing challenges because of the 60% Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty imposed on foreign residential purchases.

However, well-designed CCR homes with manageable quantums may increasingly appeal to Singaporeans and permanent residents.

As suburban launch prices continue rising, the price difference between prime and mass-market homes has narrowed.

This creates opportunities where buyers can secure a genuinely central location without paying a dramatically higher overall price.

The most interesting projects will not simply carry a District 9, 10 or 11 address.

They must also offer strong MRT access, everyday amenities and layouts suitable for owner-occupiers.

2. Executive Condominiums

The second segment to watch is the Executive Condominium market.

ECs occupy an increasingly important position between public and private housing.

They give eligible buyers access to condominium facilities and long-term privatisation potential at a lower entry price than most new private condominiums.

For HDB upgraders facing private condo prices above their comfortable budget, ECs remain one of the few realistic progression routes.

Demand is likely to remain strong, especially for developments near transport nodes, schools and established residential catchments.

The main challenge is affordability.

Even EC prices have increased significantly, and buyers must still satisfy the Mortgage Servicing Ratio and income ceiling requirements.

Nevertheless, I believe ECs will remain one of the most defensive owner-occupier segments because the target buyer demand is genuine rather than speculative.

3. Larger Resale Homes in Established Locations

The third area I would watch is the resale condominium market, particularly larger homes in established developments.

New launches tend to receive the most attention.

However, some buyers are beginning to realise that older resale condominiums can provide substantially more living space for the same overall budget.

As new launch unit sizes become more compact, families with children, multigenerational households and buyers working from home may place greater value on usable internal space.

The best opportunities are likely to be older freehold or well-located leasehold developments near MRT stations, schools and amenities.

Buyers must still evaluate maintenance condition, future repair costs, remaining lease and the surrounding supply.

But for those prioritising liveability over novelty, resale properties may offer compelling value.

My View for 2H 2026

I do not expect the second half of 2026 to be a market where everything rises together.

I expect it to be a market that rewards good judgement.

The strongest projects will be those that answer a genuine housing need.

A well-connected family home.

An EC providing a realistic path for HDB upgraders.

A central development with an attainable entry quantum.

A spacious resale home offering better value than a smaller new launch.

The market is still supported by employment, household formation, accumulated housing equity and limited land.

But these fundamentals should not be used as an excuse to buy blindly.

The first half of 2026 has shown us that demand remains present, yet buyers are prepared to wait when the product or pricing does not make sense.

For sellers, realistic pricing will become increasingly important.

For developers, product design and launch strategy will matter as much as location.

For buyers, the opportunity lies not in chasing the most popular project, but in identifying the segment where price, value and future demand are best aligned.

That, in my opinion, will define the Singapore property market in the second half of 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Singapore Property Market in 2H 2026

Will Singapore property prices fall in the second half of 2026?

A broad price correction is not my base case. Private home prices are more likely to rise moderately, although individual developments and market segments may perform differently. HDB resale prices could remain relatively flat or experience further mild consolidation after two consecutive quarters of decline.

Is 2026 a good time to buy property in Singapore?

That depends on the buyer’s financial position, holding period and purpose. Buyers purchasing for long-term occupation may find opportunities in well-located projects and value-for-money resale homes. Those relying on short-term price appreciation should be more cautious.

Which Singapore property segment has the best outlook?

Selected CCR developments, Executive Condominiums and larger resale homes in established locations are among the segments worth watching. The best-performing properties are likely to have manageable total quantums, efficient layouts, strong connectivity and genuine owner-occupier demand.

What are the biggest risks to the Singapore property market?

The key risks include geopolitical uncertainty, slower economic growth, affordability constraints, a larger future housing supply and the possibility of further government intervention should prices accelerate excessively.

Will new condo launches perform well in 2H 2026?

Well-located and sensibly priced projects should continue attracting buyers. However, with more launches competing for attention, take-up rates may vary significantly. Buyers are likely to be increasingly selective about pricing, layouts, connectivity and overall value.

Christopher Ng is an Executive Group Division Director at ERA Singapore with over 20 years of experience across residential, commercial and industrial real estate. A graduate of the National University of Singapore's Real Estate programme, he is known for advocating a long-term asset progression approach to property ownership and helps homeowners make structured property decisions. Together with his wife, Jasmine, he leads one of ERA Singapore's fastest-growing divisions while continuing to advise clients across HDB, private residential, landed and Good Class Bungalow transactions.